India
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Does Public Ownership = Public Interest?
People of my generation will remember an era of shortages and lack of opportunity. There was not enough milk, butter, food, nor electricity, steel, and aluminium. To get a telephone or gas connection, two-wheeler or car, meant a waiting list in years (yes, not days or months, but years). Unless, of course, you had “contacts”.… Continue reading
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Is India’s Manufacturing Boom Hiding in Pockets?
For several years now, we have been hearing about an imminent capex revival and a manufacturing boom. Many of the essential ingredients seem to be in place. Banks and corporates have healthy balance sheets, so money is available. Government capex is around 4% of GDP. Improving logistics and infrastructure, along with GST implementation have reduced… Continue reading
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What If the FIIs Never Come Back?
Today, every discussion about the markets seems to begin and end with FIIs, or foreign institutional investors. Why are they selling? When will they start buying? What will they buy first? Should we cut taxes to entice them? And every time the markets fall a bit, the conversation repeats, as if stuck in a groove… Continue reading
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Regulatory Risk: Hiding in Plain Sight
Regulatory risk is again in the spotlight, after IRDAI’s recent proposals to cap insurance expenses and commissions. IRDAI’s discussion paper was released on the 23rd of September and the next day, stocks of insurers, distributors and banks crashed. The collapse of market favourite, PB Fintech (Policybazaar) was the most dramatic. The stock fell 36% in… Continue reading
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India’s Stubble Problem Now Has a Business Model
Indian businesses and start-ups are often criticized for serving only richer, urban customers. But this is lazy criticism. Economic forces push businesses to solve problems that are more likely to make money. That’s just the way markets work. So when one finds a start-up working in rural India, using technology to change behaviours and provide… Continue reading
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India Isn’t Spending Less. It’s Spending Differently.
We’ve grown up in a world where consumer spending meant FMCG. So when FMCG growth slows, we instinctively conclude that consumers are not spending. But that’s a lazy conclusion. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-24 provides a clue – the share of food has fallen sharply, while non-discretionary spending has risen. However, generic words… Continue reading
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5 Things I Learnt About Inflation
On 12th February, the government announced a new consumer price inflation (CPI) series. The earlier CPI used 2012 as the base year; the new one uses 2024. This was much overdue. Consumption patterns have changed dramatically since 2012. The old series still tracked stuff like VCRs and cassettes, which are pretty much extinct. Digital expenditure,… Continue reading
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A Fact Sheet in Search of Facts
As expected, the US-India trade deal has hogged headlines. The opposition is crying foul, the usual critics of everything have rediscovered their vocal chords, and social media has done what it does best – declared an apocalypse. Amidst all the noise and hot air, the US government bowled an unplayable googly that was later ruled… Continue reading
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Devyani and Sapphire – merging to survive?
Desi cuisine strikes back Some years ago, foreign-branded quick-service restaurants (QSRs) were hot favourites among investors, including institutions. The hypothesis was simple: Under-penetration, a growing middle class, and proven international brands. Initially, the hypothesis appeared to play out – and these companies expanded rapidly, opening hundreds of outlets across India. However, in recent years, same-store… Continue reading
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Ten Predictions for 2026
Most (all?) predictions are useless, but they’re fun to make – so why not join the party? Here’s my list, in no particular order of importance. Trump will continue to create mayhem, while getting richer: This is a given. Stealing oil tankers, arbitrary tariffs and sanctions, fights with institutions and friends will no longer be… Continue reading
