Econ & Policy
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Banks Are Not Dinosaurs — Yet
I recently read an article claiming that fintechs and NBFCs will use AI to dominate lending, while traditional banks fade into irrelevance. It sounded plausible at first. But the more I thought about it, the less convinced I became. The essence of the argument is as follows: Today’s consumer wants speed and convenience (i.e. instant… Continue reading
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You Can’t Bet Against Human Nature
Since time immemorial, humans have gambled. In Harappa, Mohenjo-Daro and other places, numerous dice were found. Our ancestors enjoyed games of strategy and chance in 2500 BC. In ancient Greece, Rome, Japan, China, and elsewhere, people loved bets and wagers, even punting on gladiator contests and animal races. But throughout history, rulers and governments have… Continue reading
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5 Things I Learnt About Inflation
On 12th February, the government announced a new consumer price inflation (CPI) series. The earlier CPI used 2012 as the base year; the new one uses 2024. This was much overdue. Consumption patterns have changed dramatically since 2012. The old series still tracked stuff like VCRs and cassettes, which are pretty much extinct. Digital expenditure,… Continue reading
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A Fact Sheet in Search of Facts
As expected, the US-India trade deal has hogged headlines. The opposition is crying foul, the usual critics of everything have rediscovered their vocal chords, and social media has done what it does best – declared an apocalypse. Amidst all the noise and hot air, the US government bowled an unplayable googly that was later ruled… Continue reading
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India’s New Labour Codes – 2: Wage & Benefit Uniformity
When “wages” finally mean wages — and everyone gets counted Last week, we discussed how the simplification of labour laws benefits employers. But simplification is not a one-sided gift. Employees, too, stand to gain — and in some cases, quite substantially. Overlapping definitions and rules not only increased compliance costs, but employees often did not… Continue reading
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India’s New Labour Codes: A Once-in-three-Generations Cleanup
From 29 tangled laws to 4 clear codes — why simplification matters India’s new labour codes were finally (finally!) made effective, only six years after being enacted. Some are touting this as the biggest reform since GST, maybe even bigger. Like GST, it impacts every enterprise or business; but it also directly impacts every employee.… Continue reading
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The curious case of India’s quality control orders
How India’s QCO spree became a master-class in shooting ourselves in the foot Several years ago, a group of important policy makers and officials sat down to discuss how to boost domestic production and curtail imports. Some bright spark provided a (seemingly) magic solution – the use of “Quality Control Orders” (QCOs). Under a QCO,… Continue reading
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Rare Earths and India: Trying to run with one leg tied
Rare Earths and India: Trying to run with one leg tied In recent months, the term “rare earths” has entered drawing-room conversations, fueled by continuous media coverage. The immediate cause for this is China’s blockade of these (and other critical) minerals and their derivative products, in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs. Suddenly, we learnt that India… Continue reading
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From Oil Fields to Algorithms: National Interest is being redefined
After the Second World War, several post-colonial governments seized foreign companies – Latin American oil fields, African ports, Middle Eastern refineries and more. They justified these moves as being in their national interest, seeking to regain control of sovereign assets from the erstwhile colonial owners. Western commentators and media called it “expropriation” and a violation… Continue reading
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The needless search for certainty
Humans don’t like uncertainty. And nowhere is this more evident than in economic or business forecasts. Our analysts and economists cater to this need, with a great degree of apparent precision and accuracy. These forecasts further reinforce our belief that such things can actually be predicted. Consider these statements: Sure. As long as no pandemics,… Continue reading
