stocks
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The Market Explanation Machine
Why did the market fall (or rise) today? This is arguably the most popular question, and one that gets asked every day. But rarely does anyone say, “I don’t know.” That would signify lack of expertise. Instead we get one of several common explanations: I’m sure you can find many more. Just because these events… Continue reading
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AI and the Consensus Trap
Every analyst today is using some form of AI to create equity reports. This is evident from the slick arguments, similarity in framing hypotheses, the high-funda language used, and the dramatic pauses. Beyond the fact that everyone is starting to sound the same – the thought in my head is – Is everybody starting to… Continue reading
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Nobody Is Here to Make You Rich
Markets are inherently unpredictable, capricious and fickle. We know this, yet we let the actions of Mr. Market influence our own behavior, and often in a somewhat predictable manner. When markets behave the way we want them to, we pat ourselves on the back and start believing we are great investors. But when they don’t,… Continue reading
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The Information Curse
Recently, an investor told me that he is selling underperforming funds and buying those that have performed. Perfectly rational thinking – Or is it? Today we’re inundated with near-real-time information. Investors can track (and obsess over) daily NAVs, and financial channels and influencers amplify this multi-fold. This noise makes us forget that markets are cyclical,… Continue reading
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The Index Is Flat. The Market Isn’t.
Markets rarely behave the way we expect them to. From a Covid low of <26k in March 2020, the Sensex crossed 70k in December 2023, and peaked around 86k in September 2024. Many believed the party would never end. But since then, the index has stayed in a range of 73-86k for almost two years.… Continue reading
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Fully Charged. Fully Priced?
In the last few years, India has significantly ramped up Capex in the power sector, be it solar, grid connectivity, transmission and distribution infra, and more. Total power generation capacity more than doubled from 248 GW in 2014 to 520 GW today. Within this, solar has jumped from 2.8 GW to 110 GW. The transmission… Continue reading
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Ignore the Noise
One of the hardest lessons (for me) as an investor has been how to ignore unsolicited investment advice, especially at chaotic times like this. As the US-Israel vs Iran war grinds its way into Week 3, the world is facing an unprecedented energy shock. Large supplies of oil, gas, aluminium, and fertilisers cannot move because… Continue reading
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So much noise. So little clarity.
Back after a short vacation, the headlines suggest the world has been reinvented – again. Before we could digest the India-EU FTA, the Budget was announced. Then, out of the blue, came the India-US trade deal. The Sensex didn’t like the Budget, but loved the deal, expressing its emotions in no uncertain terms. In the… Continue reading
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Indian of the Year 2025
Awards or titles are usually controversial. Only one wins, while all the others are unhappy. Take Donald Trump, still upset about not getting the Nobel prize despite “stopping” several wars. So much so, that he abducted a President. But this article is not about Mr. Trump, despite his best efforts. This is about a strong,… Continue reading
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Investor or speculator: Know thyself
At dinner tables and WhatsApp groups in India, everyone is suddenly an investor. It doesn’t matter whether they’re flipping IPOs, or day-trading, or punting on F&O, or buying and holding. If you ask them what they do, the answer will be, “I am investing”. Nobody says “I’m speculating”, just like nobody says “I’m on a… Continue reading
