Investing
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The Market Explanation Machine
Why did the market fall (or rise) today? This is arguably the most popular question, and one that gets asked every day. But rarely does anyone say, “I don’t know.” That would signify lack of expertise. Instead we get one of several common explanations: I’m sure you can find many more. Just because these events… Continue reading
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AI and the Consensus Trap
Every analyst today is using some form of AI to create equity reports. This is evident from the slick arguments, similarity in framing hypotheses, the high-funda language used, and the dramatic pauses. Beyond the fact that everyone is starting to sound the same – the thought in my head is – Is everybody starting to… Continue reading
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Nobody Is Here to Make You Rich
Markets are inherently unpredictable, capricious and fickle. We know this, yet we let the actions of Mr. Market influence our own behavior, and often in a somewhat predictable manner. When markets behave the way we want them to, we pat ourselves on the back and start believing we are great investors. But when they don’t,… Continue reading
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If Everybody Has a Moat, Nobody Does!
“Moat” is probably one of the most overused words in investing today. Every equity report has one: brand moat, distribution moat, technology moat, data moat, ecosystem moat, relationship moat, behavioural moat, runtime moat, access moat, regulatory moat – and increasingly, moats that seem to be invented specifically for the company being analysed. A moat is… Continue reading
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Who Gets to Own India’s Future?
Today, India has developed one of most vibrant start-up ecosystems in the world. We now have more than 2.2 lakh “recognised” start-ups, and have created more than a hundred “unicorns” in the last decade or so. Many of our smartest kids today dream of “doing” a start-up, instead of migrating to the US. This is… Continue reading
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The Information Curse
Recently, an investor told me that he is selling underperforming funds and buying those that have performed. Perfectly rational thinking – Or is it? Today we’re inundated with near-real-time information. Investors can track (and obsess over) daily NAVs, and financial channels and influencers amplify this multi-fold. This noise makes us forget that markets are cyclical,… Continue reading
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The Comfort Trap
Indian companies have record cash reserves. Banks have clean balance sheets and want to lend. Yet private Capex remains subdued. Instead of leveraging excess cash and cheap loans to invest, companies are hoarding cash, buying government bonds, or returning money to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. So why is this? The usual excuse is poor… Continue reading
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The Madness of Crowds, Version 2026
The most talked-about event in recent days has been the SpaceX listing. Every day, there are stories about Elon Musk’s net worth, and how he made more money in a single day than Warren Buffett made in a lifetime. The SpaceX frenzy is not an isolated event but the latest episode in the unparalleled boom… Continue reading
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Markets, Madness and Melody
The “Efficient Market Hypothesis” (EMH) became hugely popular in the seventies and influenced market thinking for a long time (it still does). Essentially, it postulates that markets are efficient, and prices reflect all available information at any given time, so outperformance can only be achieved by taking more risk. EMH gained popularity because it was… Continue reading
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The Index Is Flat. The Market Isn’t.
Markets rarely behave the way we expect them to. From a Covid low of <26k in March 2020, the Sensex crossed 70k in December 2023, and peaked around 86k in September 2024. Many believed the party would never end. But since then, the index has stayed in a range of 73-86k for almost two years.… Continue reading
