finance
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Banks Are Not Dinosaurs — Yet
I recently read an article claiming that fintechs and NBFCs will use AI to dominate lending, while traditional banks fade into irrelevance. It sounded plausible at first. But the more I thought about it, the less convinced I became. The essence of the argument is as follows: Today’s consumer wants speed and convenience (i.e. instant… Continue reading
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Ignore the Noise
One of the hardest lessons (for me) as an investor has been how to ignore unsolicited investment advice, especially at chaotic times like this. As the US-Israel vs Iran war grinds its way into Week 3, the world is facing an unprecedented energy shock. Large supplies of oil, gas, aluminium, and fertilisers cannot move because… Continue reading
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5 Things I Learnt About Inflation
On 12th February, the government announced a new consumer price inflation (CPI) series. The earlier CPI used 2012 as the base year; the new one uses 2024. This was much overdue. Consumption patterns have changed dramatically since 2012. The old series still tracked stuff like VCRs and cassettes, which are pretty much extinct. Digital expenditure,… Continue reading
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So much noise. So little clarity.
Back after a short vacation, the headlines suggest the world has been reinvented – again. Before we could digest the India-EU FTA, the Budget was announced. Then, out of the blue, came the India-US trade deal. The Sensex didn’t like the Budget, but loved the deal, expressing its emotions in no uncertain terms. In the… Continue reading
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Indian of the Year 2025
Awards or titles are usually controversial. Only one wins, while all the others are unhappy. Take Donald Trump, still upset about not getting the Nobel prize despite “stopping” several wars. So much so, that he abducted a President. But this article is not about Mr. Trump, despite his best efforts. This is about a strong,… Continue reading
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Ten Predictions for 2026
Most (all?) predictions are useless, but they’re fun to make – so why not join the party? Here’s my list, in no particular order of importance. Trump will continue to create mayhem, while getting richer: This is a given. Stealing oil tankers, arbitrary tariffs and sanctions, fights with institutions and friends will no longer be… Continue reading
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Investor or speculator: Know thyself
At dinner tables and WhatsApp groups in India, everyone is suddenly an investor. It doesn’t matter whether they’re flipping IPOs, or day-trading, or punting on F&O, or buying and holding. If you ask them what they do, the answer will be, “I am investing”. Nobody says “I’m speculating”, just like nobody says “I’m on a… Continue reading
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Are IPO investors really that irrational?
In recent weeks, much has been written about the great IPO frenzy of 2025, with analysts and fund managers warning retail investors not to take undue risk. The latest trigger has been the Lenskart IPO, which many wise men have termed as being excessively overvalued. Yet, when I read most of the doomsayers and experts,… Continue reading
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Diwali Fireworks and FDI
While complaining to a friend about writer’s block (side effect of an overdose of Diwali sweets?), he suggested I look at the recent Emirates NBD acquisition of RBL Bank. This deal is significant for several reasons. It’s the first time we’re seeing a majority stake sale in a listed Indian bank. The investment amount is… Continue reading
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The needless search for certainty
Humans don’t like uncertainty. And nowhere is this more evident than in economic or business forecasts. Our analysts and economists cater to this need, with a great degree of apparent precision and accuracy. These forecasts further reinforce our belief that such things can actually be predicted. Consider these statements: Sure. As long as no pandemics,… Continue reading
