Maruti Suzuki India: Green Lights Ahead; Buy

Way2wealth | Jan. 9, 2019, 11:58 a.m.

Valuation

Suzuki’s partnership with Toyota which is steadily gathering momentum with an agreement reached on a number of issues including sharing of EV technology with Suzuki by Toyota. This agreement is likely to play a crucial role in the long term for MSIL as EV penetration gradually scales up in India over the long term. At CMP of Rs. 7,466, MSIL is currently trading at FY20E and FY21E EV/EBITDA of 14.8x and 12.8x respectively. We value MSIL at Rs. 8,829 per share by applying 15.1x EV/EBITDA, at a premium of 20% to its 3 year average EV/EBITDA of 12.6x. Reasons for ascribing a premium valuation compared to its past 5 year average include scarcity premium (being the only pure-play listed PV OEM in India), limited competition risk (far ahead of its competition in terms of scale, cost structure and distribution) and superior financial metrics.



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